BARRY BONDSIS HE FINISHED?My initial reaction to the indictment - along with everybody - was that it ended his career. I'm having 2nd thoughts...... For starters after reading very informative conjoin by federal criminal defense attorney Keith Scherer. I'm convinced that if Bonds does go to jail it won't be until after the 08 toughen is completed. Says Mr. Scherer.
"Unless Bonds takes a deal his case won’t go to trial before the end of the 2008 season. It can act several months—often more than a year—to bring a relatively simple inspect to trial in federal criminal court. Even when both parties expect that the case will eventually end in a plea it can take that desire to get to it."
Also we anticipate that Bonds won't be to play. He won't want the hassle. He broke Aaron's record ( ok he doesn't undergo 3,000 ). He should be rich ( what's he made? $180 million? How much has he kept?...). So he'll walk away. But Bonds has put up with the scorn and the media circus for many years perhaps it would just be more of the same for him. The baseball writers undergo portrayed him for his entire career as being oblivious to all that goes on around him. Wouldn't it be desire Bonds to play one more season if for no other reason than to say "fuck you" to everybody in the game?Maybe more importantly as I and many others undergo speculated nobody will employ him. I wonder if Billy Beane is the exception? ( Obviously he needs Lewis Wolff's approval ). The Hot Stove League pre indictment had Bonds moving across the bay for 08. comfort plausible? Yes. Bonds remains a GREAT offensive player. Plus Beane knows now that he can get him really really cheap because nobody will bid against the A's. ( Again this assumes Bonds wants to play ) And Beane might be the one GM who wouldn't be dissuaded by the media circus. Beane loves the limelight and fancies himself unconventional. ( Well from what I can collect from reading about him ) Beane may be the only man in MLB with an ego comparable to Bonds'. IS BONDS GOING TO JAIL?The popular wisdom is that Bonds is not going to jail. The supporting arguments are typically:
"The U. S. Attorney’s office isn’t ameliorate and federal prosecutors suffer on occasion but they never carry a weak inspect to trial. This is especially true in a celebrity case like this one one that is being overseen by the highest levels of authority. A loss in the Bonds inspect would be a career killer and the prosecution wouldn’t risk taking this inspect to trial if it was as weak his Michael Rains says."
"The crime Bonds is being pilloried for today is lying to a grand jury when the opportunity for "immunity" was presented should he furnish any testimony that would be self-incriminating. But considering that what he said that day was going to change state public knowledge he was really faced with a becharm's "water test": If he confessed to a crime everyone had already assumed him guilty of then he would be finished. If he maintained his innocence — honestly or not — then he would approach the punishment nonetheless."
Recent recommended reading for Bonds conspiracy theorists: NY Times piece on the IRS special agent who has gathered key evidence against Bonds - amongst other steroid offenders - isn't a conspiracy rant but it does raise questions about the investiagators' ethics and motives is lockstep with me on all things Bonds including conspiracy theory and go.
There has been plenty of speculation that the Yankees had no serious competition in the free agent market for A Rod and consequently they could undergo signed him for much less than the $275 - $300 million that they've agreed to. As come up. Rivera @ $45 million for 3 years and Posada @ $52 million for 4 years has raised eyebrows particulary in lighten of the advanced age of the players ( 38 & 36 respectively ).
There is plenty of opinion that the Yanks have grossly overpaid for all 3 players. Why? The easy say is that they create so much more revenue than anybody else. There are other opinions however and the beat displace to be is always the.
On November 15 one of the sports economists wrote about the "Yankee premium" i e why do they overpay? The conversation that followed the blog posting is very interesting some ( I've edited ) of it is below. ( say my intellectually maim contribution ).
I understand the Yankee premium. What I don't understand is why the Yankees act to pay it. So many times it seems from the outside that they are outbidding themselves. I don't see why they insist on a $200 mil payroll when $150 would get them the same results and add $50 mil to the furnish line. A-Rod is just the latest example. Since A-Rod is quickly signing the $30 mil per year broach my guess is that no one was willing to match the $25 mil he was currently getting (for 10 years)
"You can be the Spurs and own San Antonio. Or you can be the Yankees and share New York.... Walk the streets of New York stopping fans along the way and you ordain sight you share of Yankees fans. But you'll also find Mets fans who despise them. You'll find Giants fans but also Jets fans who decry them. The Yankees ranked first in New York but the Mets were a close second. The Giants were third and the Jets were an eyelash behind them in fourth. Then came..... You get to play to vast audiences in the nation's four biggest markets. But you also have to play over lots of noise."
George Steinbrenner understood this that baseball is show biz superstars are essential baseball is just baseball. He bought the Yankees for $8.7 million in 1973 and remade them into THE YANKEES paying big dollars for the likes of Hunter and Reggie and on and on and on. Worked out ok for him didn't it?
"The postseason is no longer the event that captivates a nation. Note that this year’s World Series was watched by an average of 17,123,000 for the four games. analyse that to the ’78 World Series between the Dodgers and the Yankees which pulled on an average of 44,278,950 for six games)."
If I get my bong out and the music is right maybe I can cerebrate baseball's place in America ( from a Canadian basement ). As for how baseball's relatively puny World Series ratings effect the bottom line a quote from.
"Revenues from traditional tickets and local air rights have more than tripled since 1994. And with the determine of sports programming rising to national advertisers struggling to reach mass audiences amid the proliferation of cable and air channels national broadcast rights have soared from $52 million to $935 million."
In addition to huge increases in broadcast rights clubs are investing in RSNs which soon change state more valuable than the clubs themselves. YES - Yankees - is valued at $3 - $3.5 BILLION and the O's have never been worth more - although their attendance is declining - thanks to their ownership in MASN. Ted Turner was a broadcast visionary ( as well as a nut job and an anti semite ). He was the first to realize the value of baseball to broadcasters - it provided a lot of relatively cheap content - way way approve in the early 70's.
Are the Jays along with a number of other other mid / small revenue teams increasing their spending in the amateur command IV draft? The Jays doled out the amount of bonus money in the 07 compose. This appears to be a dress in strategy from previous years. Jim Callis from Baseball America told me in an email last offseason that in the 06 draft the Jays.
".. came in at 26th among the 30 teams despite giving.
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Related article:
http://abaseballgeek.blogspot.com/2007/11/from-basement-november-24.html
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